OHA REVENUE ANALYSIS • AUGUST 14, 2026
OHA Projects Higher Fees Will Produce Less Revenue
Oregon Health Authority’s own internal analysis projects that the proposed fee increases will accelerate license attrition, reduce program revenue, and deepen the Oregon Psilocybin Services budget deficit.
The figures below are OHA projections—not Psilocybin Alliance forecasts.
The fee increase does not solve the funding problem in OHA’s model
OHA compared continued operation at current fee levels with implementation of the proposed increases beginning January 1, 2027. In every period shown, OHA projects a worse remaining balance after the increases.
60%
OHA’s assumed worst-case reduction
288 → 50
Estimated facilitator licenses/applications
$898,500
Projected biennial fee revenue by AY 2027–29
−$21.0M
Projected remaining balance by AY 2029–31
OHA states the reason directly
OHA attributes the lower revenue to an expected loss of revenue and licensee attrition caused by the fee increases. Its stated assumptions include a worst-case 60% reduction, additional consideration for current reduced-fee licensees, process changes, and historical attrition trends.
OHA models a dramatically smaller regulated system
The comparison below uses OHA’s estimated license/application counts before the increase and its AY 2027–29 projections after the increase.
| License or permit type | Before increase estimate | AY 2027–29 estimate | Projected decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facilitators | 288 | 50 | 82.6% |
| Service centers | 18 | 8 | 55.6% |
| Manufacturers | 6 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Laboratories | 1 | 1 | 0.0% |
| Worker permits | 186 | 100 | 46.2% |
The OHA worksheets label these values as estimated licenses/applications. Transaction counts cover the corresponding accounting period and may be higher than the estimated number of licensees.
The projected deficit becomes worse after the fee increase
OHA’s analysis projects that the accumulated negative balance will be approximately $2.9 million worse by AY 2029–31 with the fee increases than without them.
Without the increase
OHA projects approximately $2.0 million in fee revenue during AY 2025–27 if current fee rates and current license trends continue.
With the increase
After accounting for anticipated attrition, OHA projects only $1.72 million in fee revenue during AY 2025–27—about $281,000 less than under current fees.
What this means
The proposed fee increase is not projected to make the program financially sustainable. OHA’s analysis anticipates that higher fees will drive enough licensees out of the regulated system to reduce revenue.
The projected contraction is severe. OHA’s modeled license counts would leave a small fraction of the present facilitator, service-center, and manufacturing ecosystem.
The underlying structural problem remains. Even without the increase, OHA projects substantial deficits. Raising fees while shrinking the license base does not address the mismatch between program costs and sustainable program revenue.
Source and method
This page summarizes OHA record 2026-0889, “Oregon Psilocybin Services Revenue Analysis,” revised August 14, 2026. The document compares projected program revenue, expenditures, balances, fee transactions, and license counts with and without the proposed fee increase.
Numbers have been transcribed from OHA’s two-page worksheet. Percent declines and differences between OHA scenarios were calculated from those figures. OHA’s projections are estimates and should not be treated as observed future outcomes.
Oregon needs a sustainable solution—not a smaller program with a larger deficit
The Psilocybin Alliance is asking OHA and Oregon policymakers to confront the program’s structural funding problem with transparent analysis and solutions that preserve the regulated system.